No matter how decisive the Conservative mandate in the next election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau quietly retains the unique power to severely obstruct the Tory agenda for years to come.
In fact, Trudeau may have already set in motion a scenario that could plunge Canada into an unending series of constitutional crises at the first sign of a new Tory government attempting to reverse the carbon tax, bail reform, the Online Streaming Act or any of the other signature Liberal policies of the last nine years.
And it’s all thanks to the Senate.
By the anticipated date of the 2025 federal election, only 10 to 15 members of the 105-seat Senate will be either Conservative or Conservative appointees. The rest will be Liberal appointees. As of this writing, 70 senators have been personally appointed by Trudeau, and he’ll likely have the opportunity to appoint another 12 before his term ends.
The 105-seat Senate is now almost entirely appointed by Trudeau
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What this means is that no matter how strong the mandate of any future Conservative government, the Tory caucus will face a Liberal supermajority in the Senate with the power to gut or block any legislation sent their way.
Constitutional scholars Howard Anglin and Ray Pennings envisioned a potential nightmare scenario in which the Senate casts themselves as “resisting” a Conservative government. Given that senators are all permanently appointed until their mandatory retirement at age 75, it would take at least 10 years until a Conservative government could rack up enough Senate appointments to overcome the Liberal-appointed majority.
Somehow, this just isn’t surprising. Democracy…Smarocracy.