Future Issues (Warfare and Conflict)

Future Issues Sites:

Chinese Views of Future Warfare Chinese Views of Future Warfare: Collection of articles about doctrine of future types and causes of warfare, future threats of security environment, short-term future challenges for possible local war, and long-term future warfare from the point of view of several Chinese authors. Publi (Future Issues) http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndu/chinview/chinacont.html Toward the 21st Century: Trends in Post-Cold War International Security Toward the 21st Century: Trends in Post-Cold War International Security: Addresses key changes since the Cold War ended, lessons, current problems and issues. Commissioned by the Swiss Ministry of Defense, 1998. (Future Issues) http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/details.cfm?r_oID=6810&sid=C119C06DD2C2184ABE6A5EF90547BC05 Globalization and the Nature of War Globalization and the Nature of War: The article shows how globalization is enhancing the role of political guidance and changing the nature of war. Author: Antulio Echevarria II. Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the US Army War College, 2003. (Future Issues) http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=215&CFID=56652&CFTOKEN=42523302 The New Craft of Intelligence: Achieving Asymmetric Advantage in the Face of Non Traditional Threats The New Craft of Intelligence: Achieving Asymmetric Advantage in the Face of Non Traditional Threats: A paper where the author, Robert M. Steele, examines two paradigm shifts--one in relation to the threat and a second in relation to intelligence methods-- while offering a new model for threat analysis and a new model for intelligence operations in non-tr (Future Issues) http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=217/ Changing the Paradigm of the War Changing the Paradigm of the War: A paper about the nature of fourth generation warfare and the form it may take in Middle East. By Steve Daskal, November 2003. (Future Issues) http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/daskal_changing_paradigms.htm The Future of War and the American Military The Future of War and the American Military: Shows how the process of developing and building new weapons, as does the process of recruiting and training new military officers takes decades, so that, leaders need to be futurists by making statements, implicitly or explicitly, about what they think w (Future Issues) http://www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/050218.html Swarming - The Next Face of the Battle Swarming - The Next Face of the Battle: Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation. Opinion article by J. Arquilla and D. Ronfeldt, Aviation Week & Space Tech (Future Issues) http://www.rand.org/commentary/100703AWST.html Nation-State Failure: A Recurring Phenomenon? Nation-State Failure: A Recurring Phenomenon?: Analyzes the weakness and failure of nation-states as a potential source of future conflicts. Essay by Robert Rotberg, for NIC 2020 Project, Inaugural Workshop, November 2003. (Future Issues)[PDF] http://www.odci.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2003_11_06_papers/panel2_nov6.pdf Fourth Generation Warfare Fourth Generation Warfare: Slide show that summarizes the key aspects of asymmetric conflicts, by Greg Wilcox and G.I. Wilson for Boyd Comference, 2002. (Future Issues)[PDF] http://d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/4GW_wilson-wilcox_boyd_conf_2002.pdf From Kadesh to Kandahar: Military Theory and the Future of War. From Kadesh to Kandahar: Military Theory and the Future of War.: The challenges of post-modern war from a multidimensional point of view, by Michael Evans, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003. (Future Issues) http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2003/Summer/pdfs/art6-su3.pdf Homeland Security: The New Role for Defense Homeland Security: The New Role for Defense: Shows the change of US strategic vision of national and global security after September 11 attacks, by Steven J. Tomisek. Strategic Forum No.189, February 2002. (Future Issues) http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF189/sf189.htm Bury Cold War Mindset: Fourth Generation Warfare Rewrites Military Strategy Bury Cold War Mindset: Fourth Generation Warfare Rewrites Military Strategy: Article by Jack Shanahan, Chet Richards and Franklin Spinney, 2002. Describes fourth-generation warfare that pits nations against non-national organizations or networks that include not only fundamentalist extremists, but also ethnic factions, mafias and (Future Issues) http://www.cdi.org/mrp/4GW.cfm Fighting in the Gray Zone. A Strategy to Close the Preemption Gap. Fighting in the Gray Zone. A Strategy to Close the Preemption Gap.: The US 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS) identified the proliferation, privatization, and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups and rogue states as the critical nontraditional threat of the 21st century. Published in September (Future Issues) http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=412/ Will Special Ops Success Change the Face of War? Will Special Ops Success Change the Face of War?: The role of U.S. special operations forces in future conflicts explained by a number of specialists. Author: Harold Kennedy, National Defense Magazine, Feb 2002. (Future Issues) http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/article.cfm?Id=721 Past and Future of Nuclear War Past and Future of Nuclear War: Transcript of a talk given at American University, April 2002, with edits. (Future Issues) http://www.ieer.org/comments/dsmt/auspeech.html May the Smartest Machine Win: Warfare in the 21st Century May the Smartest Machine Win: Warfare in the 21st Century: Article from Raymond Kurzweil on future methods of fighting, including pilotless planes and thinking machines. Published in 1993. (Future Issues) http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0248.html War in the 21st Century War in the 21st Century: The analysis states the need of assuming an increasingly difficult and conflict-ridden international environment as the Century develops, with most forms of war and military intervention occurring. Terrorists and rebels directed against the West and elite (Future Issues) http://www.londonconsortium.com/hirst/w21c.doc Military Role in Countering Terrorist Use of WMD Military Role in Countering Terrorist Use of WMD: The article shows how the end of the Cold War created a new-world order and presented new challenges for future leaders, such as countering the ever growing terrorist threat. Accompanying this threat is a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, now (Future Issues) http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/dickinson.htm Future Directions in Warfare: Good and Bad Analysis, Dubious Rhetoric, and the Fog of Peace Future Directions in Warfare: Good and Bad Analysis, Dubious Rhetoric, and the Fog of Peace: The changes required in US military to cope with the set of challenges that the early 21st will pose, by Glenn C. Buchan, RAND, for the Conference on Analyzing Conflict: Insights from the Natural and Social Sciences, UCLA, April 2003. (Future Issues)[PDF] http://fac.cgu.edu/~zakp/conferences/AC/papers/Buchan.pdf Historical Perspectives on Future War Historical Perspectives on Future War: Shows how thinking deeply about the future of war requires careful reflection on its past, by Robert F. Baumann, 1997. (Future Issues) http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/milreview/baumann-marapr97.htm NIC - 2020 Project NIC - 2020 Project: Information about a research project aimed at covering influences that would shape the world to the year 2020. Contains papers about the nature of future conflicts. Sponsored by the US National Intelligence Council. (Future Issues) http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html Violent Conflict in the 21st Century: Causes, Instruments, and Mitigation Violent Conflict in the 21st Century: Causes, Instruments, and Mitigation: Collection of essays including 'The New Evils of the 21st Century' by Robert D. Kaplan; 'Weapons of Mass Destruction and Physical Heritage of the Cold War' by W.K.H. Panofsky and 'Group Loyalty and Ethnic Violence' by Donald L. Horowitz. [PDF] (Future Issues) http://www.amacad.org/publications/violent.htm Biotechnology and Water Security in the 21st Century Biotechnology and Water Security in the 21st Century: A report about the future consequences of water scarcity worldwide. It states the urgency of confronting the potential crisis and conflicts on all fronts, from research to policy and action. By Panel on Biotechnology of the World Commission on Water for t (Future Issues)[PDF] http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/Vision/Documents/Biotech-report.PDF Fourth Generation Warfare: How Tactics of the Weak Confound the Strong Fourth Generation Warfare: How Tactics of the Weak Confound the Strong: Postulates that today's global environment is defined by the 4th Generation War reality, with nation-states confronting criminal enterprises, fanatical opportunists, and terrorists whose gang-like networks transcend national boundaries. All these actors o (Future Issues) http://d-n-i.net/fcs/comments/c490.htm A Military for the 21st Century: Lessons from the Recent Past A Military for the 21st Century: Lessons from the Recent Past: A study about the required post-Cold War military transformation which takes into account the changing nature of war and the experiences of past conflicts. By Anthony C. Zinni, Strategic Forum, US National Defense University, July 2001. (Future Issues) http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF181/sf181.htm The Revenge of the Melians: Asymmetric Threats and the Next QDR The Revenge of the Melians: Asymmetric Threats and the Next QDR: An assessment of future security environment for 2025, by Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., National Defense University, McNair Paper 62, 2000. (Future Issues) http://www.ndu.edu/inss/McNair/mcnair62/m62cvr.html All Possible Wars? Towards a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2001-2025 All Possible Wars? Towards a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2001-2025: Sam Tangredi presents a set of assumptions and possible scenarios about the future security environment for the next 25 years. National Defense University, USA. McNair Paper No. 63, November 2000. (Future Issues) http://www.ndu.edu/inss/McNair/mcnair63/m63cvr.html Strategies for Peace in the 21st Century: An Online Course Strategies for Peace in the 21st Century: An Online Course: Discusses U.S. policy options and alternatives in order to make the world more peaceful. (Future Issues) http://www.qvctc.commnet.edu/millennium/peace/coursead.html Future War Future War: Examines the performance of U.S. forces in three major post-Cold War military conflicts to identify commonalities and trends that may have implications for the conduct of warfare in the early 21st Century. Authored by The Analysis Center, Northrop Grumman (Future Issues)[PDF] http://www.capitol.northgrum.com/files/NGACP_0103.pdf Has Warfare Changed? Sorting Apples from Oranges Has Warfare Changed? Sorting Apples from Oranges: States the difference between the conduct of war and the nature of war, and its practical consequences in the information age. Author: James M.Dubik, Landpower Essay, Institute of Landwarfare, July 2002. (Future Issues)[PDF] http://www.ausa.org/PDFdocs/lpe02-3.pdf A 21st. Century Security Architecture for the Americas: Multilateral Cooperation, Liberal Peace and Soft Power. A 21st. Century Security Architecture for the Americas: Multilateral Cooperation, Liberal Peace and Soft Power.: A paper showing a response to the question of "How can the United States best develop security cooperation within the Americas?" by Col. Joseph R. Nunez. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, August 2002. (Future Issues) http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/display.cfm/hurl/PubID=15/ Battlefield of the Future - 21st Century Warfare Issues Battlefield of the Future - 21st Century Warfare Issues: Study on future principles of war, military affairs, air power, plus information and biological war. From the U.S. Air Force. (Future Issues) http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/battle/bftoc.html Warfare in the 21st Century Warfare in the 21st Century: Books, documents, articles and web sites. References gathered in a selected bibliography compiled by Jane E. Gibish, U.S. Army War College Library, July 2003. (Future Issues) http://carlisle-www.army.mil/library/bibs/warfar03.htm Conflict in a Changing World: Looking Two Decades Forward Conflict in a Changing World: Looking Two Decades Forward: A view of conflict and its strategic environment two decades ahead. Author: C.J. Dick. Published by The Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK, 2002. (Future Issues) http://www.csrc.ac.uk/pdfs/M25-cjd.pdf Global Challenges for the 21st Century: Nonproliferation and Arms Control Global Challenges for the 21st Century: Nonproliferation and Arms Control: Remarks by John Gannon from the National Intelligence Council to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, about the globalization of the security environment and the implications for counterproliferation, May 2000. (Future Issues)[PDF] http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/cia/53100CIA.pdf Welcome to the Postmodern Warfare Era Welcome to the Postmodern Warfare Era: An anticipatory article by David Isenberg, October 2000. (Future Issues) http://www.speakout.com/activism/opinions/2973-1.html The Network Is the Battlefield The Network Is the Battlefield: The Pentagon's aim is to meld weapons systems and people into a whole, called network-centric warfare, that's greater than the sum of its parts. From Business Week Online, January 2003. (Future Issues) http://www.businessweek.com/print/technology/content/jan2003/tc2003017_2464.htm?tc&sub=03miltech The Kingdom of Chaos or What Hath the Great Subversive Wrought? The Kingdom of Chaos or What Hath the Great Subversive Wrought?: The article describes the state of chaos of the post-Cold War world, with a steady increase of entropy and anomie, and a crisis of former models of leadership. Also, analyzes the nature of future conflicts and the role of United States and Europe as key p (Future Issues) http://www.centrotocqueville.org.ar/htm/htm/nab/nb10050401in.htm The War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists Armed with Chemical and Biological Weapons The War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists Armed with Chemical and Biological Weapons: A compilation of articles by several authors about how future wars are expected to be. Barry R. Schneider and Jim A. Davis, Editors, USAF Counterproliferation Center, April 2004. (Future Issues) http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/war_next_time/cover.htm Watch on the West: War and Strategy in the 21st Century Watch on the West: War and Strategy in the 21st Century: Describes how events in the Twenty-first Century will test the limits to American strength but not its fundamentals and postulates that these tests will underscore the inability of technology to overcome all challenges, by Jeremy Black, February 2002. (Future Issues) http://www.fpri.org/ww/0304.200202.black.warandstrategy21stcentury.html Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror: An approach to the better understanding of asymmetric threats. By Colin S. Gray, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly - Spring 2002. (Future Issues) http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/02spring/gray.htm The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation: An article that intends to anticipate what the future conflicts will be like. Introduces the concept of fourth generation war. By William S. Lind, Keith Nightengale, John F. Schmitt, Joseph W. Sutton and Gary I. Wilson, published in Marine Corps Gazette, (Future Issues) http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/4th_gen_war_gazette.htm Chemical and Biological Warfare in the 21st Century Chemical and Biological Warfare in the 21st Century: The zigzag evolution of chemical and biological weapons in the 20th century give causes for both optimism and pessimism in the course it will take in the 21st, by Greg Goebel, Jun 2003. (Future Issues) http://www.vectorsite.net/twgas5.html Nanotechnology and International Security Nanotechnology and International Security: How technologies emerging over the coming decades will undermine military stability while causing economic and political turmoil. The need to move beyond deterrence to an integrated international security system. Article by Mark Avrum Gubrud, Center for S (Future Issues) http://www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Papers/Gubrud/index.html Information Warfare Information Warfare: Articles about information warfare, nanowar, and other future conflict scenarios from Plausible Futures Newsletter. (Future Issues) http://www.plausiblefutures.com/index.php?cat=6694a