Prime Minister Stephen Harper -
The Ultimate Political Escape Route - Saving Face.
Fact: On Friday January 11 the Provincial and Territorial leaders will spend an afternoon with Stephen Harper, supposedly discussing the economy and the rising Canadian dollar.
Speculation: There are those who suspect the long standing battle over equalization will once again come to the fore when Danny Williams and the newly minted Premier of Saskatchewan enter the room.
Prediction: Forget about it.
This meeting will turn out exactly what it's billed, a chat about the economy and nothing more (at least from Newfoundland and Labrador's perspective).
At this point in time both Premier Williams and the Prime Minister Harper are toning things down. They've both been very non-confrontational since meeting back in November and even though Williams gave Harper a deadline for resolution, one supposedly marked by this meeting, the subject will not be discussed.
A lot has already been said in the media over the past several month, the positions of each man is well known to the other and there is little for either man to gain, but much to lose, in turning up the heat at this time.
No doubt there is movement afoot behind the scenes to make the entire issue go away before the next federal election. Harper doesn't want a loose cannon crisscrossing the Country while on the hustings and it's doubtful Williams really want's to spend so much time taking on an anti-campaign.
With the rhetoric on low simmer and the issues having slipped from the national spotlight the opportunity is there for both men to "save face" and come out of this with a compromise they can both live with. That opportunity will disappear if the upcoming meeting ends in another blood bath.
At this point Williams knows he is not going to get the full 10 billion the Harper election promise would have provided. Harper knows Williams' public and internal party disturbances are not simply going to go away.
Whether you like or hate either man one thing nobody can argue is their intelligence and it is this intelligence that will lead to a solution before Canadians go to the polls.
The trick here is for Williams to make some limited gains (perhaps a loan guarantee on the lower churchill and some other serious funding for projects or infrastructure) and for Harper to appear not to have given in to the province's demands. The only question remaining is how they will accomplish these two goals and that's something most of us will come to suspect but may never truly know.
In the coming months there are likely to be some announcements or developments that involve the federal government and the province but they won't be publicly announced as "compensation for the wrongs committed by Ottawa". Such an announcement would prevent Mr. Harper from saving face and at this point saving face is far more important to him than the original issue itself.
Don't look for any fireworks at the First Minister's meeting this week but keep your eyes and ears sharply tuned in for a period of unexpected federal / provincial co-operation over major projects in the coming year.